Comments on: Portfolio Performance: -18.1% YTD thru Nov 2008

By: The Enlightened American » Portfolio Up +2.5% YTD 2009 and the View Ahead

The Enlightened American » Portfolio Up +2.5% YTD 2009 and the View Ahead — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 05:49:46 +0000

[...] of gold and gold miners accounted for the higher returns (anticipated in the October and November commentaries). Of course, these returns can quickly become a mirage, especially in the crazy, volatile world [...]

By: Dax

Dax — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 17:57:39 +0000

No I agree with Louise on the secular bear market from 2000. I think it’s less clear where we go from here. You can look at the chart as a double top (2000 + 2007) or as a double bottom (2002 + 2008), which would give very different conclusions.

Also, a secular market can have a counter trend rally lasting years. That’s what Louise missed in 2004. I think we could have a big bear market rally from here, but dunno if it would be a new bull market.

By: Davy Bui

Davy Bui — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 23:14:50 +0000

Dax, thanks for the heads-up on PFF.

Did a quick check on it and their top holding is Freeport Preferreds but the next largest holding is Ford. The next 8 largest holdings are all financials.

http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundpages/etf_funds.asp?MFID=176361

Caveat emptor.

Do you think Yamada is wrong on her secular bear market call dating back to 2000? I’m not a chartist but from a fundamental standpoint, even during the rally from 2003 – 2007, the US$ fell in conjunction with the rally, so were US investors really any better off?

By: Dax

Dax — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 19:43:04 +0000

There’s an ETF that invests in Preferred stocks. Ticker is PFF.

By: Davy Bui

Davy Bui — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 16:59:29 +0000

Lac,

There’s not much information on preferreds. You can look up stock information just like any other ticker if the preferred is publicly listed. CHK provided a little cheat sheet summarizing all the features of their convertibles. I basically looked up the initial SEC filing for the preferreds I bought.

By: LacPham

LacPham — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 20:48:22 +0000

Hi,
How do you find information on preferred stocks on the Web?

By: Dax

Dax — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 15:47:40 +0000

I’m a very big fan of Louise Yamada, but even she isn’t right all the time. She was very bearish in 2004, saying (again) that the S&P was in a secular bear market that began in 2000.

As for Gold, George Soros made money this year when he shorted Oil and went long Gold. His reasoning was that there is typically a 10:1 relationship between Gold and Oil (Gold at $500 = Oil at $50), and Oil at $147 was too expensive relative to Gold.

Now Gold seems too expensive relative to Oil.