The Danger of Extrapolating: Teen Fashion Spending Under Pressure; Buffett Calls Stagflation

Bloomberg reports on teens cutting back on clothes purchases amid higher gas prices and worsening job prospects. Back in May, I posted a quick note on American Eagle Outfitters (or click here for the full valuation report in pdf format). In my report, I was a little squishy on my assessment of AEO [...]

No Comments

2008 Q1 13F-HR Filings: Klarman, Witmer, Third Ave

Seth Klarman’s Baupost filing is once again littered with SPACs but there are some interesting items to note:

Substantial new position in Wellpoint (WLP): Not to be confused with Wellcare (WCG), which Bruce Berkowitz and Mohnish Pabrai (piggybacking off Berkowitz) own. I have a few of the health insurers (UNH, HUM, WCG) on my watchlist [...]

1 Comment

American Eagle Outfitters Worse-Case Valuation?

A reader posted a comment disagreeing with my assessment of American Eagle Outfitters (AEO). Unfortunately, no constructive analysis was provided to support the reader’s case.
Below you will find my report on AEO.  Keep in mind I am discounting the following factors:

I am skeptical that AEO can maintain their current market and brand position. There is an oft-quoted tidbit that AEO is the 2nd best [...]

3 Comments

American Eagle Outfitters: A Bearish View

I recently finished my research on AEO this past week and while I don’t usually post reports or comment on companies in which I have yet to open a position, I wanted to point readers to this bearish post on Seeking Alpha.   Ellerd values AEO at $13 per share.
I will probably post the report some [...]

No Comments

-->