The True Wall of Worry Resides in Commodities, Not Equities

A few peculiarities I’ve noticed about mainstream financial media: * Seemingly everyone is a contrarian. It doesn’t matter which argument, bull or bear, is being made, it is usually prefaced by “I’m a contrarian by nature” or some variation thereof. Obviously people don’t really know what that word means. * No one is ever called [...]

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Recovering From Surgery

Still recovering from surgery so sorry for the lack of updates over the last week or so. I haven’t been able to do any sustained research so mostly keeping up with the daily newspapers and reading some books. Interesting to see the commodities market action. We constantly hear about the “wall of worry” that stock [...]

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Inflation: Rumors of Its Demise Were Premature

Unexpectedly (unless you read this blog and other like-minded sites), inflation has come back with back-to-back scary PPI and CPI numbers, even despite the government massaging. In response, gold and oil has sold off, which makes little sense. Maybe people are discounting the inflation-fighting response already. Who knows? One can waste a lot of time [...]

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Fed Credibility Shot to Pieces

Any person who has ever interacted with dogs on a regular basis knows that you need to establish that you are the leader of the pack and that it (the dog) needs to follow you. Failing this, you will lose control, with varying destructive consequences (depending on the dog, of course). Back at the beginning [...]

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Bloodbath in the Resource Sector

Looks like last week’s selloff finally caught up to us. Some really notable names off hard: NOV off ~6 pointsPBR off ~8 pointsPCU off 9+ pointsABX off 3+ pointsAUY off 1+ pointBHP off 3+ pointsCNQ off ~6 pointsFCX off 10+ points In my portfolio, AEM, TCK, PWE, hell pretty much everything in there is throwing [...]

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Big Drops in Resource Sector

Markets just opened and huge drops all around in the resource and commodities space. My guess is that the Yen strengthening past 110 has caused some carry trade unwinding and hedge funds are selling winning positions to close out currency positions. That is based completely on conjecture and no evidence so take it for what [...]

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