Dollar Trouble – Much Ado About Nothing?

That’s what this Bloomberg article suggests: Weak Dollar Illusory as Correlated Trade Shows Gains It is always beneficial to confront our own beliefs and analyses. For those of us fearing for the long-term future of the US economy, this article puts a different light on the widely disseminated fact that the dollar has lost most [...]

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Taking Shelter From The US Dollar

With Marc Faber making the rounds and predicting that the US$ will go to zero, this week’s screen for foreign stocks seems particularly timely. Unfortunately, investors looking to make a move now must contend with a very weak dollar, which makes overseas stocks more expensive. The specific criteria I used are listed below: (Domestic / [...]

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Reckoning Day for US Dollar Coming Next Year

No, Peter Schiff is not Japanese. The strategist predicting the dollar’s imminent demise is Daisuke Uno, who works at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. You can find details at Bloomberg but Uno is basing his prediction on Elliot Wave theory and claims this next move down in the dollar is the culmination of the super-cycle that’s [...]

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Yellow Flags Popping Up In Junk

Two stories from Bloomberg today reinforce my sentiments toward the junk bond market: Junk-Bond Rally Premature as Record Defaults Loom, Analysts Say Global Crisis ‘Vastly Worse’ Than 1930s, Taleb Says Mr. “Black Swan” Taleb needs little introduction. Money quotes in the article include his thoughts on gold and other commodities (buy what “China will like”) [...]

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Portfolio Performance +5.2% Through March 2009

Click here to view the spreadsheet containing all disclosures for my complete equity portfolio, including initial entry points, YTD returns, total returns, etc. THE ENLIGHTENED-AMERICAN PORTFOLIO SPREADSHEET Enlightened-American Portfolio: +5.2% YTD (including dividends) DJIA: -13.3% Nasdaq: -3.1% S&P 500: -11.7% DJ WIlshire 5000: -8.9% Russell 2000 (smallcap): -15.4% The stock market enjoyed a strong rally [...]

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Strange Happenings In The Currency Markets

Quick note that there’s no screen this week as I release my portfolio spreadsheet tomorrow evening. The weekend’s Financial Times carried an article on the carry trade: “Carry Trade Makes Comeback.” I doubt fx markets will go back to pre-2008 conditions where the yen carry trade is so prominent but there is massive uncertainty in [...]

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